Why do so many defendants in Hong Kong political trials plead guilty? Of course we can’t answer for them but can provide some context. First, the numbers: About 42% of the 1,535 convicted in political trials have plead[ed] guilty.[National Security Law (NSL) and] sedition trials have so far [had] a 100% conviction rate among the only 15 who've plead[ed] not guilty & received a verdict. Trials of protesters -- by far the majority of political trials -- have a little lower conviction rate but not much -- around 90%.So there's the perception that the judiciary isn't entirely independent (to put it mildly), & in NSL & sedition trials not independent at all. The deck's stacked against you. [But i]f you plead guilty, you are eligible for up to a one-third reduction of your sentence.Many [of the accused] are waiting a very long time -- 2, 3, even 4 years -- before their cases even come to trial. If you're on remand, that's not necessarily such an issue, since time on remand will eventually be counted toward completion of sentence once convicted and imprisoned.But almost all on trial for riot -- more than 800 -- are on bail pending completion of trial. If they plead guilty early in the process, they can start serving their guilty-plea-reduced sentence ASAP, which means they get out ASAP...So far, 405 out of 435 riot defendants have been convicted -- a 93% conviction rate. Your chances of acquittal are low. If you plead not guilty, you wait years for your case to come to trial & then almost certainly get convicted. Your average 44-month sentence only starts then....whereas if you plead guilty at the 1st opportunity, you can get out of prison not long after fellow defendants who plead not guilty go to prison, as on top of the 1/3 reduction in sentence for pleading guilty, you can get up to a 1/3 reduction for good conduct in prison....Most defendants don't see their trials as a matter of principle but of math in a rigged system. The charges are bogus & the judges biased -- in NSL & sedition trials, they're “designated” by the [Chinese Communist Party (CCP)]-appointed Chief Executive [of Hong Kong, John Lee]. In riot trials wearing black is enough to get you years in prison...On top of all that, lawyers are expensive, & these days, there's almost no legal aid. It used to be groups like Spark Alliance & the 612 Humanitarian Relief Fund covered legal fees of protesters. That's why the Hong Kong government smashed them.
Oh, and should there be any doubt: as the headline of a Wall Street Journal article out today states, "Hong Kong Arrests Show No Letup in Beijing-Driven Crackdown on Dissent". And as is noted in the article itself: "Protesters have largely stayed off the streets, but the arrests have continued. At least 17 people were arrested during the past year for posting online content that was deemed to be a threat to national security."
This even though the "vast majority of opposition figures and activists have either been
locked up, fled abroad or moved into jobs that don’t involve politics
after the advent of the national security law." As more than one person has observed: now that a national security bureau has been established, and so much money plowed into it, its personnel are going to have to justify their existence -- and the most obvious way to do so is to find more people to accuse of being threats to national security, and arrest! And as we have seen, we've now come to the rather surreal point where the targets are... housewives active on social media!